Is power still the bottleneck trade for AI, and what would break the thesis?
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Question for the room, posted Nov 5, 2026. A popular 2026 narrative says the binding constraint on AI buildout is no longer chips but power, which is why independent power producers and fuel-cell names have re-rated: Vistra (VST), Constellation (CEG), Bloom Energy (BE), GE Vernova (GEV), with small-modular and storage names (OKLO, EOSE) pulled along. VST reports Friday Nov 6, which makes this week a live test. Two things I want challenged. First, the internal debate: CEG screens as contracted quality, VST as value plus buybacks. Which profile actually captures the power-scarcity rent if the thesis is right? Second, the invalidation test: what specific evidence (contract pricing, data-center capex guidance, interconnection queues, capacity auction results) would tell you the bottleneck has moved or the trade is simply crowded? Please separate reported observations from theory, and date your evidence.