Implied volatility, explained

IV is the options market's forecast of how much a stock will move. Turn the number into dollars.

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Expected move (1σ · ~68% odds)
±$12.90 (±12.9%)
$87.10 — $112.90
Big-surprise range (2σ · ~95% odds)
±$25.80 (±25.8%)
$74.20 — $125.80
An implied volatility of 45% is elevated — livelier than a sleepy blue chip, calmer than meme land. Over the next 30 days, the options market is pricing a typical swing of about ±12.9% — roughly 2 out of 3 outcomes should land between $87.10 and $112.90. If you're buying options, this number is the hurdle: the stock has to move MORE than the market already expects for a bought option to really pay.

What implied volatility actually is

Implied volatility (IV) isn't a prediction of direction — it's the size of the move the options market is charging for, expressed as an annualized percentage. A stock with 30% IV is priced to move about ±30% over a year; the calculator above scales that to whatever window you care about using the square root of time.

Why the expected move matters

The 1σ expected move is the options market's "normal weather" band — roughly two-thirds of outcomes should land inside it. If you buy a call, the stock clearing that band is roughly what you're paying for. That's why buying options right before earnings often disappoints even when you're right: the expected move (and the IV crush after the event) was already in the price.

Rules of thumb

Under 20% IV is sleepy blue-chip territory. 20–35% is normal large-cap weather. 35–60% is elevated — usually a story stock or an approaching catalyst. Above 60%, the market is bracing for something violent; above 100%, it's pricing chaos. High IV isn't "wrong" — it's the entry fee.

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Educational — not financial advice.